By Daniel A. Marley
The Edmonton Oilers have been awarded, yet again, the first overall pick in the 2012 National Hockey League Draft.
Chances are they will draft Nail Yakupov, forward, of the Sarnia Sting. From the game footage that I have seen, Yakupov reminds me of Alexander Ovechkin, before his game sagged to what it is now. Nail can hit, shoot, make plays, and generate action at both ends of the ice.
Also, he has the strength to break glass. Remember his check on Brett Cook on January 21, 2011?
If this guy is so great, why are the Oilers “dumb” if they draft Nail? It’s because they have way too much offensive talent, and nothing to look forward to on the defensive front.
On offense, apart from Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Linus Omark, they have players like Magnus Paajarvi and Tobias Rieder to look forward to in the future.
Paajarvi had an up-and-down season this year, but continues to show a lot of improvement in his game. With the Oklahoma City Barons of the American Hockey League as of April 10, he posted 23 points in 31 games with a plus-six rating. As the Barons gear up for the Calder Cup Playoffs, Paajarvi will have the opportunity to continue to improve his game. He will definitely come out of this slump as a top-six forward.
I have been keeping a close eye on the Kitchener Rangers’ Rieder since the beginning of the year. Rieder is a great offensive player that has a lot of upside to his game, combining speed and great stick handling into goal scoring and smart playmaking. He will fit well with Edmonton’s style of play, and fair well in a lineup with either Nugent-Hopkins or Gagner. During the 2011/12 regular season, Rieder has posted 42 goals and 43 assists in 60 games. With phenomenal improvement to his game, I expect Rieder to be competing for a roster spot next year.
Even though they have this stockpile of offensive talent, the Oilers have no defensemen in their system to look forward to in their rebuilding process. I am still shocked that Adam Larsson was not the first overall pick in the draft last year.
Andy Sutton, Ladislav Smid, and Ryan Whitney will be departing after next season due to the possibility of retirement and unrestricted free agency. If Edmonton is not playoff contenders next year, there will be no luck resigning them.
Defensemen like Corey Potter, Colten Teubert, and Alex Plante are on pace to become career minor leaguers. The way they are playing now at their current levels are not what the Oilers organization had expected, which means their future status on the club roster is bleak if they do not improve their game soon.
The only defensive prospects that Edmonton has to look forward to are Oscar Klefbom, Jeff Petry, and David Musil.
From EliteProspects.com: “A big and strong defenseman with very impressive leadership qualities and character, Klefbom plays a good two-way game and is fairly good defensively, while probably being capable to chip in more offensively than he has in the past. He reads the play very well and has good enough positioning. He also has speed and a great passing game.” Expect him on the roster next season.
Petry is a smart two-way forward that can generate offense and shut down opponents at the blue line. He still has some work to do to get his game at that NHL-level. After next season, he will be a better-established pro player.
Musil is a strong player who can shut down the opposition at the blue line. His game is expected to evolve as his development progresses. Expect him to compete for a roster spot next year.
Klefbom, Petry, and Musil are the defensive future of the Oilers, and that is not enough. If they still want to go after Yakupov, what the Oilers should do is make some moves for defensemen or picks in the draft to get those needed defensemen.
During the 2011/12 season, rumors speculated over a trade between the Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, which would send Omark to the Leafs for defenseman Luke Scheen. Even though Scheen’s production is in question after a somewhat peculiar year, his physical play is what Edmonton needs. He can contribute offensively, but his ability to hit and block shots will help bolster Edmonton’s special teams. The right deal can land Scheen to Edmonton and give the Oilers that needed defensive boost.
Another option, which could upset Oilers fans, is moving Gagner at the Draft. His offensive value can land the team a better quality defenseman plus a first round pick. That first round pick, which should be between picks 15 and 22, can get them a goalie like Malcolm Subban at the draft. The deal should be made with their provincial rivals, the Calgary Flames.
The Flames too are in need of a rebuild and are looking for better top-six talent to add to their future plans. Playing on a line with the likes of Sven Baertschi, Gagner can help turn Calgary’s luck around. A brief truce can be made to help further excite the Alberta rivalry.
With goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin aging, Edmonton needs to add some goaltending depth. Subban has great positioning and is quick from post-to-post. He also has incredible reflexes, making his glove hand and blocker valuable commodities. He still needs to improve in screened situations, but he is already showing significant signs of improvement in that area. In 39 games this year with the Belleville Bulls of the Ontario Hockey League, Subban has allowed 94 goals on 1,215 shots against with three shutouts.
As for the other players involved in the deal, Edmonton could use a defenseman like Mark Giordano, a solid d-man that can block shots and use that talent to help prospects improve their blue-line defense.
There are more combinations of moves that the Oilers can make, but the point is that before they select Nail Yakupov as the first overall pick, they need to be aware of their specific needs before going after another player they do not need.
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