By Dan Marley
The season is almost halfway done and already everyone is making their playoff and trophy predictions. I thought I’d take a shot at predicting the winners and losers myself.
Instead of saying, “this team will beat this team in seven games” or “that guy will win this honor,” I decided to take another approach: Now, Maybe, Next Year, or Possibly Never.
From what I am seeing this year, a lot of teams are sending me mixed signals on how they will finish. Each team will be categorized based on the signals that I am receiving.
Every team in the “Now” category has the potential to win it this year. If they do not end up winning the Cup, definitely next year.
The “Maybes” are those dark horses that might surprise everybody this year. There are only a few based on their trends. Some choices might surprise you, but it is that situation where it is “this year or never.”
The “Next Years” are the teams that will not make it far this year, but a minor tweaking could lead to Stanley Cup glory in 2013.
The “Possibly Never” teams have more problems to work on before they can even think about competing for the Cup, with some having high hopes on the horizon and others light years away from a first round win. These issues have become more visible this season or have been recurring for over a long span of time and nothing has been done to compensate for these damages.
To start off, I will address who are the “Nevers” and work my way up to the “Nows.” Also, going against my traditional style of writing, I will be brief with my explanations. Some of my explanations may sound monotonous, but the same scenario may apply to multiple teams.
*Standings as of January 11, 2012 at 2:15 PM EST; no special way these teams were ranked.
Possibly Never (8)
1. Columbus Blue Jackets (11-26-5, 27 pts)
The Blue Jackets have a new lease to keep them in Ohio until 2039, according to prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com. The moves that they have made to acquire Jeff Carter from the Flyers and James Wisinewski from Montreal via multiple off-season trades are backfiring: Carter cannot develop chemistry with captain Rick Nash and Wisinewski’s eight-game suspension in the beginning of the year put them in a deep hole early (2-9-1 in the month of October). Now with Nash trade rumors circulating, this team has to rebuild, yet again. My advice, get players who can play together and be smarter come Draft Day. Hopefully, Nail Yakupov (Sarnia, OHL) and Mikhail Grigorenko (Quebec, QMJHL) won’t become busts at the NHL level.
2. Anaheim Ducks (13-22-6, 32 pts)
Not off to the start that they were hoping for, and Bruce Boudreau is not helping. Under his reign of… whatever kind of terror It is, they are 5-9-2, and continue to sink in the standings. There were rumors about trading Bobby Ryan earlier this year, and if teams are interested in him, the Ducks have the negotiating floor. Expect Anaheim to do some damage come Trade Deadline, which is on February 27th at 3pm EST. It might be a while before they actually clique as one cohesive unit to the likes of their Stanley Cup years in 2003 (lost to Devils) and 2007 (defeated Ottawa).
3. New York Islanders (15-19-6, 36 pts)
No veteran leadership, a decaying attendance, and a stadium waiting to collapse on itself encumber the fate of the Islanders in New York. This organization needs to find a new home, maybe Kansas City, Hartford, or Quebec? They cannot compete within their own division, let alone the entire Eastern Conference. They have players that can bring anyone they want to Uniondale, but do any of them want to play here? I even bet you Mark Streit and Evegni Nabokov want out, and one of them is the captain. Kyle Okposo has been disappointing the fans as of late, as well as the rest of the offensive staff. Expect Okposo to be moved.
4. Montreal Canadiens (16-19-7, 39 pts)
Scott Gomez for Ryan McDonagh, Pavel Valentenko, and Chris Higgins was probably the worst trade in Canadiens history. While McDonagh is entering his prime with the Rangers, Valentenko gaining a lot of interests from NHL teams while playing for the CT Whale of the American Hockey League, and Higgins playing important offensive roles and earning Top-6 status with the Canucks, Gomez is getting hurt and losing his ability to play every single day. On top of that, only three players (Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty, and Andrei Kostitsyn) have reached the ten-goal mark while 50-percent of the remaining roster has failed to reach five. The irony I find here is that of the three listed above, one of them almost lost his life during a game. See link below:
Fortunately for Montreal, their fan base is one of the most supportive. So no matter what approach they take, there will still be 20,000-plus at the Bell Centre every game. Expect them to make some trades and build for the future.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (14-23-7, 35 points)
Personally, I thought the Hurricanes would compete for a playoff spot this year. Their goaltending is out of whack, nearing the 150 goals allowed mark in 44 games. Their defense is atrocious, allowing over 30 goals each when they are on the ice. Scoring too has been an issue with these guys; I don’t know where to begin. I foresee a bad prophecy for Carolina.
6. Calgary Flames (20-19-5, 45 pts)
The last article I wrote about the Flames sums up what they should do: build from within and acquire the missing pieces needed for future success (see subsequent article). They have a plethora of contracts that are about to expire, and there is little or no chance of these players resigning.
7. Phoenix Coyotes (20-17-6, 46 pts)
Do I need to explain why the Phoenix Coyotes will never win a Cup? They cannot financially afford to be in one. I am shocked that they are in the playoff hunt. They have trouble keeping their good players, i.e. Kyle Turris, and those who are desperate to find work at the pro level are not desperate enough to go to the desert. Just relocate already! Mike Smith has stepped up, Shane Doan is consistent, and that’s about it.
8. Washington Capitals (21-17-2, 44 pts)
I might get beat up for this, but I can’t be the only one who thinks this way. Long story short: Ovechkin is not a leader, Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth are not all what they crack up to be in net, everyone is apparently on the trade block, and whenever this team makes it big they come up short in the end. They should stop stockpiling players who are really utilized for their individual efforts and start getting players that can develop better chemistry with one another.
Maybe Next Year (13)
1. Florida Panthers (21-13-8, 50 pts)
If you would have told me in the beginning of the season that the Panthers would have a somewhat commanding lead over the Capitals in the Southeast Division by this point in the season, I would have called you crazy. Now, it is believable. However, amongst the Division leaders, they have trouble scoring goals. Their youth movement is so far successful, but they need a goal scorer that they can get a hold of for more than just half a season. They could make a playoff spot, but are not yet ready to take THAT step closer to saving their franchise from soon-to-be financial turmoil. Next year, if this current chemistry is still in existence, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins (21-16-4, 46 pts)
The future of Sidney Crosby is questionable. Could this be the end of an illustrious career? The good news is that the Penguins have shown that they can win without him, and if they can keep this dynamic in tact, they will have a good shot at the Cup next year.
3. Ottawa Senators (23-15-6, 52 pts)
Ottawa is bouncing back from their mini depression during the Dany Heatley years. Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, and Daniel Alfredsson are stepping up their games. Sergei Gonchar is having a bounce-back season. Craig Anderson is doing well in net. The rookies could use a little more developing, and despite the run they are in, there are better teams in the league.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs (22-15-5, 49 pts)
The Leafs are showing good signs of improvement. Phil Kessel is having a better year offensively, the defense is cliquing and contributing offensively, and the goalies are healthy in splitting time. Their defense and goaltending is still young and not yet fully experienced. This year should focus on these players improving their skills, but don’t count them out for next year.
5. Buffalo Sabres (18-19-5, 41 pts)
After making a lot of changes in ownership, the Sabres went out and stocked their team with players who had personal-best career years last season and young players from their farm system. So far, no success. Players like Brad Boyes and even Ryan Miller might be on the move, because they cannot reach their expectations. IF they can go on some kind of streak to end the season on a positive note, they can definitely bounce back in the standings next year. I had them winning the Northeast Division this year, but it looks like Boston will yet again reign supreme.
6. Winnipeg Jets (20-17-5, 45 pts)
The Jets are getting use to traveling back and forth from central Canada to the east coast and back. Unfortunately, they are probably going to have to do it again for another year because the NHLPA declined the new division realignment plans. They are making a push right now for the last playoff seed, but their roster consists of young players who still need to acclimate themselves with the professional style of play. Must be the jet lag kicking in.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning (17-20-4, 38 pts)
After they were able to keep Steven Stamkos in St. Petersburg, the Lightning have had nothing but a bad omen. The goaltending is terrible, and they only have two reliable sources of goal scoring. They still have time to bounce back, but in my opinion, they should just end the season now and regroup for next year. Sellers with a cause?
8. Nashville Predators (23-15-4, 50 pts)
Nashville is in the playoff hunt and threatening to climb higher in the standings. Their defense is doing well and Pekka Rinne is having a great year so far. They have multiple sources of goal scoring, but not enough for them to compete for the Cup. Shea Weber might be on the move to acquire better offensive talent. When they do get better offensively, expect them to make some noise.
9. Minnesota Wild (22-15-6, 50 pts)
The incredible start that they had in the beginning of the season is nothing but a distant memory now. They lost nine of their last 11 games. The Canucks got first place back in their division and the Avalanche are coming from behind to take over their position in the standings. A team that is known for its defense has allowed a lot of goals during their slump. They are also finding it hard to score goals as well. If they can get out of that slump, they can finish the year strong; however, it is not enough to win a Cup in 2012. If not, it might be a while before they can move closer to their Cup dreams.
10. Colorado Avalanche (23-20-1, 47 pts)
Colorado has been playing great hockey with a peculiar institution of players. Fans have criticized the team for their poor moves in the offseason, and expected them to finish dead last in the standings. It has been the exact opposite of that. Semyon Varlamov is so far worth the risk, and J.S. Giguere is playing like the star he was back in his days with Anaheim. Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene, and Paul Stastny are generating a lot of offense, and players like Ryan O’Riley and are stepping up their game despite their age or how the team initially utilizes their skills. There is chemistry there, though it can improve just a little bit more.
11. Los Angeles Kings (21-15-7, 49 pts)
With the players that they have on that roster, they should be the best team in the league. If they can move some now-unwanted salary around, they can play some better hockey and regroup for next season.
12. Edmonton Oilers (16-22-3, 35 pts)
Their youth movement is going well according to plan. Next season, the prospects will be ready to compete. Hopefully Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can recover soundly from his left shoulder injury.
13. New Jersey Devils (23-17-2, 48 pts)
Everything depends on the status of Zach Parise. They really need to work on their future goaltending plans (see After Brodeur). The rest of their prospects are developing well. I am looking forward to seeing Adam Henrique, Mattias Tedenby, Adam Larsson, and others reach their prime.
Maybe (3)
1. St. Louis Blues (25-12-5, 55 pts)
They are surprising everyone this year with their goaltending duo of Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot. The defense too contributes to their successes, allowing only 89 goals in 42 games. Their offense is coming from multiple sources, something that Blues fans haven’t seen in a while. They play amazing hockey at home, but are below .500 on the road. They are under the radar and not popularizing their successes across the league. Good for them. They remind me of the 2009/10 Montreal Canadiens in terms of being under the radar, and they have one of their players from that that team.
2. San Jose Sharks (23-11-5, 51 pts)
They are a maybe every year, the perfect example of a team with only “regular season success.” Everyone is contributing offensively, but under the “assists” category. They are struggling on the special teams, something they need to improve on. If they can get someone other than Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture, and Joe Pavelski to score more goals, they will go farther this year. Defense is superb, with only one player a “minus” (Jason Demers with a minus-7 rating).
3. Dallas Stars (23-17-1, 47 pts)
After Brad Richards left, the hockey community did not see Dallas competing, rather working on relocation plans. So far, General Manager Joe Nieuwendyk is proving everyone wrong. They are third in their division in a really close race, and can climb up to the top soon. Jamie Benn, Louie Eriksson, and Richard Bachman are playing well this year and could be franchise pieces.
Now (6)
1. New York Rangers (27-9-4, 58 pts)
This article by Kevin Allen of USA Today: Sports perfectly sums it up.
2. Philadelphia Flyers (25-12-4, 54 pts)
After losing in the Winter Classic, they are taking out their frustrations on their remaining scheduled opponents. Everyone is playing their part, and the rookies are making more of an impact than Mike Richards (now with LA) and Jeff Carter (now with Columbus) ever did. Fans say that they are ready for a Cup this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get it in 2012. Their only problem: goaltending. Ilya Bryzgalov, a.k.a. Mr. Universe, is having a poor start to his tenure in Philadelphia. Sergei Bobrovsky is stepping and taking over as the starter, so there is hope on the horizon. Expect Mr. Universe to take that humiliation he endured during the 24/7 taping and turn it into saves and wins.
3. Boston Bruins (27-11-1, 55 pts)
A plus-70 goal differential pretty much sums it up. Everyone is contributing on the offensive and defensive fronts, and there is no sign of a mid-season collapse. Back-to-back champions?
4. Detroit Red Wings (26-15-1, 53 pts)
Jimmy Howard is stellar in net and carrying his club far. Everyone is contributing outside of their current roles, something that the Red Wings have done every year they won the Cup. Is this a good sign of things to come in Detroit? Also, they usually play better playoff hockey.
5. Chicago Blackhawks (25-13-5, 55 pts)
A team that probably has one of the best Top-6 statuses in the league. Marian Hossa (17-28-45), Jonathan Toews (22-20-42), Patrick Sharp (20-20-40), Patrick Kane (10-28-38), Viktor Stalberg (12-13-25), and Dave Bolland (10-9-19) are major offensive threats. Duncan Keith and Nick Leddy are good defensemen who can contribute at both ends of the ice. Their checking line led by Daniel Carcillo is one of the fiercest, and once Danny Boy comes back from his injury he will do so with a vengeance, after being suspended by the NHL for seven games for illegal hit prior to said injury. Corey Crawford is continuously increasing his goalie skills, and Ray Emery is a solid backup.
6. Vancouver Canucks (27-14-3, 57 pts)
For the city of Vancouver’s sake, I hope they win the Cup so that the drunken and trashy fans do not trash or torch the city again. They were off to a rocky start this season, but they have managed to bounce back. Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider are a perfect duo in net. There is nothing to fear if one of these two get hurt. They are the only team in the league that has a Top-9 status on offense and a strong defensive core.
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